So today, in case you missed it, Microsoft announced a positively revolutionary new gaming technology they’re dubbing Project Natal (working title). In short, it’s a motion-sensing system that requires no controller—think Eyetoy, except insanely accurate (or so it would seem from the demos, some of which were live), where your movements are tracked to a tee without you needing anything more than your own body. During the media briefing, the crowd was wowed by demonstrations of people playing games where your entire body was involved: stretching out to bat balls back to the distance from where they fly, painting by swiping your arms to and fro, race car driving by moving your arms as though you were holding a wheel and changing tires in the pit using only gestures… and that’s really just the beginning of it. Microsoft also touts voice and facial recognition, which allow the player to interact with the console almost as if it were a live person. In fact, near the end of the demo, that’s precisely what was shown: people interacting with a console-based character that sensed emotion in their voices and responded to them as if it were actually alive.
No one’s sure whether this stuff actually works as well as advertised, though if we’re lucky, we might be able to get our hands on it during the show (a select few media outlets will be able to). Until we’re certain, we’ll just have to take the company’s word for it; but what we saw today (and filmed in high-def) sure as heck looked authentic.
“Old Hat”
The real question, however, assuming that this stuff is actually functional and practical, is what does this mean to Nintendo, a company which has firmly rooted itself upon the foundation of motion control supremacy and state-of-the-art gameplay to go hand-in-hand? It’s no secret that the Wii’s success is largely due to its “wow” factor—as well as the ease of picking up and playing its games. Problem is, if what Microsoft is showing here is for real, Nintendo’s tech is old hat. How are you going to compete with the wow factor of actually moving your entire body and seeing all of those movements replicated on-screen?
The Wii currently approximates its players’ positions based on the use of the peripherals they hold; but even with balance board and Wii-mote/nunchuk involved, that’s still just four tangible points of measurement, and it’s never perfectly dependable, either. The IR is occasionally problematic, the accelerometers aren’t perfect, and the Wii Balance Board’s usefulness is limited when it comes to activities which normally require some degree of mobility (where your feet leave the ground). Seemingly, none of these limitations apply to Microsoft’s Project Natal concept, though again, we can’t know for certain just yet.
You may argue that this sort of thing isn’t all that impacting, because, well, as with the Wii, it’s probably going to be a marginal gimmick which eventually is shunned by the majority of the hardcore segment. And that may be the case, but if that’s your thought process, you’re missing the point here. Nintendo’s success is because of their casual audience today with the Wii. That’s given them the resources and the freedom to explore new gaming ideas and take risks with the marketplace. Maybe you don’t agree with the kinds of software Nintendo has been putting out, but their strategy has been sound and nothing short of lucrative. The problem is, they’re wholly unprepared (it would seem) for the introduction of a Project Natal.
Chances are, Nintendo has known Microsoft’s been working on this technology for some time. If that’s the case, how can they possibly respond to something like this? Their (now) well-known “Blue Ocean” strategy has taken them back to the top of the industry, but that point of differentiation is now quickly set to disintegrate before their very eyes should Microsoft’s supposedly-functional alternative technology take to the market as quickly as it should. How can you continue a strategy of differentiation and hope to reap a comparable level of success when your product is no longer different or even superior in any way?
Worse yet, Nintendo has seen dwindling support among their core. Feeling betrayed following last year’s media briefing and reeling from a year of just a few great games catering to their segment, the Nintendo faithful are becoming rather unfaithful indeed. Most of them now own multiple consoles, are giving their PlayStation 3s and Xbox 360s some serious love, and are beginning to worry about the Wii’s future software line-up. It’s thoroughly unfair to say for certain whether or not this will be an issue before tomorrow’s media briefing, but in all honesty, it’s hard to imagine Nintendo topping Microsoft in any way following the two-hour win-fest we witnessed firsthand today. After losing some of the glue which has held the company together and collectively pulled them through their hard times (N64 and GCN), it’s got to be a matter of concern for them: who’s going to continue the fervent support if and when Wii sales finally hit a brick wall in America?
Don’t shoot the messenger
I wish I was wrong, because I, too, am among the Nintendo faithful. I own nearly every Nintendo title published over the past decade (and plenty prior to that, too), and I’m a massive, undying fan of their creative and colorful franchises. A new Wii Zelda game announcement tomorrow would probably require I change my underwear, though I am not hopeful we’ll see that.
But what we’re experiencing here is bigger than just Mario and Zelda. It’s Nintendo’s seemingly-untouchable position in the industry being uncomfortably encroached upon by a company which previously was viewed as having taken a serious backseat in terms of market share over the past few years. In other words, it’s 2006 all over again, only this time, swap Sony and Nintendo with Nintendo and Microsoft, respectively. Nintendo will need to respond, and they’ll need to do so very quickly… because unless Microsoft commits commercial suicide in some fashion here, it looks like they’ve got a dangerous weapon at their disposal.
This is how the industry works, my friends. Well, every industry, to some degree, but in the volatile realm of electronic entertainment, this sort of chaotic unpredictability is the rule. Nothing has happened yet, but the writing seems to be appearing on the wall, just as it did for Nintendo in 2006. Perhaps I’m jumping to conclusions here (me and nearly every other journalist I communed with throughout the workday today), but I wrote a very similar article directly following Nintendo’s media briefing in 2006, and yet another after actually experiencing the Wii for myself behind closed doors the very next day. This isn’t some sort of hopeful conjecture; it’s merely an observation from a gamer who has seen this sort of thing in progress for nearly 20 years now.
Whether or not you’re as taken by the Natal demonstrations as your humble editor here, just know that it isn’t hard to construe this as quite a foreboding omen. As Nintendo has consistently said, in order to succeed in today’s gaming marketplace, you’ve got to innovate (well, innovate and maintain the status quo in the categories which you aren’t innovating anyway, yes… which is something our standard-def, casual-game-playing Wiis perhaps don’t do so well at times).
There’s always a risk
When Nintendo innovated and expanded the market three years ago, enabling them to snatch up the grannies and the soccer moms practically unchallenged over the past 36 months, they must have realized that they also effectively widened the playing field for all game companies everywhere. It would not be unthinkable that a competitor could snatch those newly-turned Wii Sports gamers right out from under Nintendo should the right product and supplemental marketing come along. And right in line with that reality, just as the Wii spelled doom for Sony’s sales three years ago, if Nintendo doesn’t react with the necessary quickness, they could be witnessing a Natal blow to their current perch atop the market.
What do you think? We’d love to hear your reactions to the situation—let us know in the comments below.
